Tough week on the GPP Flowchart in Week 2. The late Julio Jones scratch kind of put us into a bit of a tailspin early Sunday morning. In instances like that where late injury news greatly affects the chart, I will always post my thoughts directly to Twitter, so definitely follow me there if you need to fire in last minute questions.
Tom Brady and the Buccaneers just don’t appear to be throwing as much as last year, this could be due to the lack of healthy weapons, but I at least thought accessing Brady and Fournette would be a good way to score points for our lineup. Nothing happened there and just like that we are on to Week 3.
We are in for a fun Sunday tomorrow. There are a ton of potential high scoring games on the slate and we have 6 different teams that are projecting to score at least 4 touchdowns. On weeks like this, it’s easy to make a stand against a game or two and just completely fade it. We feel the urge to see something popular and come up with reasons why the game would fail instead of just trying to figure out ways to access the game without being incredibly duped. I would advise, taking some stands this week, don’t get too spread out, and don’t being scared to play into chalk atmospheres as long as you are figuring out how to be unique.
Game Stack
Ok this probably feels pretty dang gross, but we’ve seen Joe Flacco throw for 614 yards and 5 TDs through 2 weeks. Last week’s comeback effort against Cleveland accounted for 4 of those touchdowns and Flacco topped 30 DKPts in that one. I’ve been on the Elijah Moore train already this year, and he has yet to have a big blowup game. I think we could be in for a better matchup here against the Bengals, so I’m willing to bet on the talent.
Garrett Wilson absolutely took off in Week 2. His first TD score of his career is going to be his Debut moment on NFL All Day, an he really impressed all game against the Browns. Again, I know this feels pretty gross firing up Flacco and two WRs, but at a combined salary of $15,700, it’s not hard to see how this lineup hits 4X-5X value pretty easily against the Bengals. If we are going to pay down at QB, then we absolutely have to load up the rest of our lineups with some guys with 35-40 DKPt ceilings.
Bring It Back Stack & Tight Ends
Speaking of ceiling, that’s exactly what Ja’Marr Chase offers us on a weekly basis. After an 0-2 start to the season, you would have to think that the Bengals are going to come out here guns blazing in Week 2. If we want the Jets stack to have access to it’s ceiling, then we want to be betting on the Bengals to score some long touchdowns and quicken the pace. Hello Chase!
Tee Higgins is the other option for a bring-back here because he is feeling pretty underpriced this week at $6100, however I am ok with Joe Mixon here as well. All we want is a Bengals stud to really pop off and help push the Jets offensive weapons into a shootout.
Now that we’ve packaged this game up well into our lineups, it’s time to start setting the groundwork for some secondary stacks on a couple of other popular games this weekend. First off, I really love Dawson Knox as a contrarian play this week for the Bills. It’s hard to believe there will be many Bills/Dolphins lineups that skip both Josh Allen and Stefon Diggs this week, but Knox is definitely a guy who has the ability to pay off his $4100 price tag and do it in a way that leverages off of Diggs. On the flipside, Irv Smith Jr. will likely be the most popular TE on the slate, which is something I don’t usually feel to comfortable playing. However, Smith had a big Week 2 performance on Monday night and since the salaries locked before that, he is mis-priced here in Week 3. Also, it’s important to remember we have our guy Joe Flacco as QB so we can eat some chalk if we need to.
Secondary Stack
I talked a lot about almost all of these guys in this week’s cash article, so I won’t regurgitate it here, but I think it’s going to be key bringing back a Dolphin with Knox and a Lion with Irv Smith. Amon-Ra St. Brown is really taking off this year, so he will likely be the most popular correlation piece, but we could easily see D’Andre Swift vulture 1 or 2 of St. Brown’s touchdowns and be the key to the slate.
After their performance last week, you could say that picking between Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill is a bit of a coin flip. Waddle was consistently seeing more targets in Week 2 and finished with an insane 19! Meanwhile Tyreek Hill had back-to-back explosive touchdowns and seemed able to get wide open whenever he wanted. Point being, you can’t really go wrong with either of these Dolphins receivers in what projects to be another shootout.
Final Pieces
Ok by now you are probably asking yourself where are the RBs?! Remember what I said up top about trying to access as many 35-40 DKPt performances as possible with Flacco at QB. We’ve already touched on some really great options, but Christian McCaffrey might be my favorite one here this week. He’s seen really great usage through 2 weeks, but the Panthers play volume has just not really been where we thought it would be. They don’t have the greatest matchup in the world this week against the Saints, but if McCaffrey can pair his TD in Week 1 with his 100 yard performance in Week 2, we could be playing with fire here at 5-10% ownership.
CMC should be the starting point in Column 4 for both paths of the flowchart. From there, we are placing a couple bets on RBs being the main source of points in their respective games. Rashaad Penny seems pretty low-priced even though he is in a bit of a timeshare with Kenneth Walker now. The same time share comment goes for AJ Dillon, but man the Packers RBs are their two best offensive weapons so I don’t mind it. If James Conner is healthy this week, he should see plenty of action against the Rams in what should be a high-scoring affair. And last but not least, Miles Sanders has been off to a great start this year and all we need is him to score the TDs for the Eagles in order to help sink Jalen Hurts lineups.
That does it for The Flowchart this week. Good luck to all and I hope to see you at the top of the leaderboards this week!