Setting the stage for how to approach the new Playbook feature on NFL All Day
Official All Day Blog Announcement
Momentum Labs Tool: “Playbook – Week 1” in the NFL Google Sheets
I put together a quick tool to help us try and gameplan for the Week 1 Playbook. I’m going to start with talking about how I am projecting EV for the rewards and then we will talk about how to use the tool.
It appears like a vast majority of the packs we are going to receive on NFL All Day are going to come without a pack list. Ya I know, trust me it took me a few days to get over this as well. However, due to the variable nature of Burning Challenges and these Weekly Playbook challenges, it kind of makes sense. I have been talking with multiple people on the AD team and I think at a minimum we are going to get more clarity on the % chance we have at rares/legendaries. I think I’ve also convinced them to issue pack lists out after the rewards packs are created so we can at least try and see how the different rewards are trending and use them as a gut check when projecting for future rewards.
In the meantime, if you visit the “S1 – Pack EV” tool you can see a list of all the moments that qualify for each category. Using the number of moments “Minted” which means they are still in the AD Reserves, we can quickly come up with the EV of 1 moment from each group. From there we can determine what the EV is of each of the packs. (Any assumptions are listed).
1-Star – 1 Base Moment – $16
2-Star – 1 Base & 1 Base/Common SE – $33 (for 2nd common, I assumed 75% base chance and 25% Common SE)
3-Star – 2 Common & 1 Common/Rare – $61 (assumed 10% chance at Rare)
4-Star – 2 Common & 1 Common/Rare – $92 (assumed 40% chance at Rare)
5-Star – 2 Common & 1 Rare/Legendary – $177 (assumed 1% chance at a Legendary)
Ok, now that we’ve got the EV Calcs and assumptions out of the way, it’s time to apply this towards the Playbook tool. Please note: as we receive more information about pack contents, I will update the EV calcs accordingly! The goal I had when making this tool, was to help describe the most efficient way to get to each yardage marker. I also wanted to try and summarize net cost/profit of the the Playbook journey IF you follow the most efficient path.
40 Yards – The most efficient way to get here is through all the free plays plus buying one moment. I put in the minimum of $5 for buying a moment and then I also added in the $25 cost of burning 5 moments. Doing all this and nothing more nets you an EV of $19.
60, 80, and 100 Yards – In order to get here, you have to complete 4 of the 5 challenges. One thing I found interesting when looking at the amount of moments in All Day Reserve was that once the new moments from 4th & Goal come out, there are less than 2500 Rares and 100 Legendaries. This makes me think that they are going to make it tough to get all the way up to a gauranteed Rare pack. They simply don’t have enough supply to give out 1000 4-Star packs each week Therefore, I think we need to prepare ourselves for 1 or 2 hard challenges each week. Another thing is I could be overassuming the rare rate in the 3-Star and 4-Star tiers above.
Here’s my main takeaways on the 60 to 100 Yard range.
Last night’s TNF challenge is currently projecting to be a cost of $58 (which basically just depends on where the Gabe Davis lands). I think there’s a decent chance that this is only the 3rd or 4th most “expensive” one to complete. Because the timer on this ends at 8:30pm PST tonight, I think it makes sense to knock this one out and get it under your belt ONLY if you plan on completing 2 more and getting to 80 yards. The reason I say this is after you account for TNF, I am projecting only $22 worth of wiggle room on whatever the cheapest challenge is from the weekend and the 3-star reward pack. For the 4-star reward pack, which would mean finishing the two cheapest challenges this weekend, I am showing $114 of wiggle room so I feel slightly more confident that we will come in +EV at this range rather than at the 3-star threshold.
Never do all 5 challenges. If you do all the freebie points, you are able to get the 5-star pack by only completing 4 of 5 challenges. I believe that having the option of skipping 1 challenge each week will greatly increase your EV in the Playbook over the long term. DO THE FREE POINTS.
I think there is actually a decent shot the Playbook comes in -EV this week. Now of course, the EV calcs are going to be comparing against the profit you could have earned if you sold during the challenge, so it kind of depends on your mindset here…but I just want to prepare people for this. The rare %s could come in really low. The challenge costs could be really high. Plenty of ways this doesn’t land us in the green this week. Be prepared for this!
If the Playbook as a whole trends -EV, I think it could have a deflationary affect on the market. To be honest, I’m not sure how many people are going to take the time to do the math on all this stuff so maybe there’s a chance everybody just keep flying blind and firing away, but in general I think there is a good argument to make that the Week 1 euphoria could be hard to match at any other point this season. Because of this, I think it could be smart to sell off stacks into this short term inflation/speculation. I also think it might be smart to wait another week or so to load up on stacks for speculation on the rest of the season. The start of NFL season is pretty unmatched, so I think it’s important for us to realize this and sell into spots we may not see again. Like maybe Gabe Davis at $99?! :man_shrugging:
I think there’s an alternate way to approach this which doesn’t really account for the same kind of EV calc that I’ve outlined above. This is more in line with the play that people made on Top Shot last year where they essentially bought the S2 set and just viewed all the flash challenges as passive income. Because we have the ability to probably land 3 packs a week (maybe 4) fairly passively, I fully support just keeping one moment from each player, selling off dupes that you land in packs during speculation pumps, and just having that be your main bankroll builder. This is more of a long-term approach to the platform, but I could see it playing out fairly well and personally is probably going to be the approach that I take. I don’t think it’s necessary to go out and buy one of every single player on the site, but getting most of the top fantasy options and then seeing how the next few weeks play out will be important. If this approach is something that appeals to you, I would advise paying up for the ADD commons to hold long-term rather than other deflated commons who should lose value at a steeper rate when more commons come out.
Ok that was a lot of rambling, but I hope it helps!