Official Announcement: https://blog.nflallday.com/posts/go-for-two-our-first-burn-challenge
Yesterday, NFL All Day announced their first burning challenge. If you had more than 7 moments in your account before yesterday, you were airdropped a Celebration Pack last night (3 guaranteed commons). When you open the Celebration Pack between now and 11:59pm EST on Friday, Sept 9th you will have two options 1) keep the three moments or 2) burn the three moments for a new 4th & Goal pack (3 moments plus a 4th that could be common/rare/legendary). This pack will be airdropped into your accounts some time on Monday, September 12th.
Let’s break it all down:
1) This is technically Celebration Pack Release 2 (link: https://nflallday.com/packs/35) however we don’t have a pack contents list for this, so I think it’s fair to assume it’s created very similarly to the Celebration Pack Release 1. If you look at the S1 – Circ. Count Tool on the Google Sheets, you will be able to see that those packs have an EV of $44 currently, and as you scroll down the sheet you can see that they are made up predominantly of Week 13 thru 18 moments aka none of the ones from the Rewind Packs this summer.
2) For those who have started to try and figure out your way around the new weekly All Day Playbook feature (more on that from me later), you will notice that if you choose to burn your Celebration Pack it will count towards 3 of the 5 moments required to be burned to open up the Premium portion of Playbook. This is no small added feature as the floor is pretty much $5 and it seems to be headed towards $6.
3) Here’s where I get to go on my soapbox and say how rough it is doing EV calcs for All Day packs since almost all of them are a dynamic pack count sand they typically don’t release pack contents lists. For the 4th & Goal packs they provided a list of all the moments included and it’s basically every common on the platform plus all of the rares/legendaries from the rewind and reward packs this summer. They did not provide any information on what the chances are that you land a Common/Rare/Legendary on your 4th moment (I assumed a 77.35% Common – 22% Rare – 0.65% Legendary rate which aligns with the 3 Rewind Packs). They also did not provide the breakdown of how many of each moment will be included in the final pack distribution. Because of this, I have to essentially treat every moment like there’s an equal shot of pulling that within each tier. It’s obviously not going to be like this when they load the final packs, but I assume the EV will only skew by a couple percentage points in either direction. The EV for these packs given the above assumptions is projecting to be $107.
There’s all the information…what should we do with it?
It’s important to factor in #2 from above when making your decision. If you hold the Celebration Pack, you will need to burn 3 more moments to unlock Playbook then you would if you burned the pack, so the EV of the Celebration Pack should really be lowered by $15 (floor is $5 currently). Therefore, the Celebration should be considered an EV of $29 and the 4th & Goal should be considered an EV of $107.
Ok but JBB, I pulled a $42 Cooper Kupp in my Celebration pack AND a Rams Defender for the TNF Challenge ANDa Bucs Defender who may be useful for the SNF challenge, shouldn’t I just take the win and move on?! (this actually happened to me so trust me I’ve got good experience here). My Answer is GO FOR IT ON 4TH & GOAL!! Simply picking a common moment out of a hat right now has an EV of $16 alone. We aren’t used to this kind of calc on TS so when we see a $40 common it seems good. Trust me, there’s a lot of $40+ moments out there in the 4th & Goal packs. I say lock in the +EV move, re-roll for 4 new moments, and go pack a Tom Brady legendary!
Happy Football Season everyone 🏈