The third and final Rewind Packs from NFL All Day drop this Friday. All of the data for this drop is included above. It looks like a pretty safe one, although there aren’t many homerun commons like we saw with the Playmakers Rewind drop last week. Majority of packs will be in that $40 to $70 range. I want to hit on a couple of important things we can start considering now that we know all of the Rewind Packs are established.
1. I would imagine we will see some upside cases during the first few weeks of the season with the players who do not have a common moment, but do have a rare moment. If they go the Flash Challenge route that Top Shot did, and a specific player is needed based on in-game performance statistics, these rares are likely going to pop. You can find these moments using the “Fantasy Ranks” tool on the NFL Google Sheets, but this list includes Aaron Rodgers, Kirk Cousins (2 Rares), Matt Ryan, Jared Goff, Dalvin Cook, Leonard Fournette, Ezekiel Elliott, Mike Evans (2 Rares), Davante Adams, Mike Williams, Brandin Cooks, Chris Godwin, and Dallas Goedert.
2. On the flip side, we will also potentially see some upside cases on players who have one common moment and a LARGE jump up to their next cheapest Rare / Legendary moment. Again, these are visible on the “Fantasy Ranks” tool, but the list includes Justin Herbert, Lamar Jackson, Dak Prescott, Justin Fields, Daniel Jones, Christian McCaffrey, Derrick Henry, D’Andre Swift, Saquon Barkley, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquise Brown, Jerry Jeudy, Gabriel Davis, Darren Waller, T.J. Hockenson, Dawson Knox, Pat Friermuth, and Albert Okwuegbunam.
3. We are officially 21 days away from real NFL action. If we assume that there will be a couple of Week 1 challenges on NFL All Day, that means everyday we get closer, the circulation counts start to matter less. I’m willing to bet that there is still another airdrop coming which will release some more of the Week 13-18 supply, but I don’t think it will have as huge of an impact since the first Celebration Pack didn’t matter much. If you have been holding off on buying a player because of their low circ. count, might be wise to start picking them up with the intent to flip during the first few weeks.
4. The big Week 13-18 Burn is coming up soon (I would guess). Right now there are 633,259 moments from Weeks 13-18 that AREN’T in packs meaning they are eligible to get burned. We know they will burn 100,000 but the question is how many more than that will they burn? Right now, I created the “Projected Burn” tool in the Google Sheets which provides an estimate for how many of each of these moments that will burn. As we find more information on this I will update accordingly.
