Let’s dive into the numbers for tomorrow’s pack drop. As usual, we’ll start with the data and then I’ll give a couple thoughts on how to best approach this and the market moving forward.
Player Projections – So for the most part I think All Day did a really good job with moment curation here. They have a good mix of rookies and ADD badges in this first batch. They also did a fairly good job of making sure needs within tiers were plugged for guys who didn’t have moments at certain tiers. In case you missed it earlier, here is a link to the Discord message where we were in real time updating from the blockchain as we found out which moments were in which sets. Super crucial to know this information immediately as it affects our buy/hold/sell decisions.
In total, we have 42 new editions and 167,517 new moments added to circulation. 20 Commons, 16 rares, and 6 Legendaries. It’s important to note that not all of these moments are going to hit the platform immediately tomorrow. Roughly 25%-30% of each has been kept out of the packs and I would assume will show up in the Week 3 and onwards Playbook packs.
I feel like I have erred on the side of conservative when putting together these projections. I have assumed the floor commons will go down to $6 tomorrow, and that floor rares will be in the $40 to $45 range. I have not tried to predict any immediate swings based on upcoming Primetime games or anything like that. These are the barebones “base projections” that you guys are used to seeing. Note: all new players have been added to the “Current Teams” tool on the Google Sheets which feeds the “Primetime Games” tool.
Standard Pack – So the numbers aren’t absolutely amazing here in the Standard section. Yes it does just squeak over the +EV line, however you’ve got about a 36% chance that your pack is less than $50. There will be some packs that land 4 floor moments. Of course, 20.2% of these packs will land a rare/legendary…but again just be aware that simply landing a rare moment could barely break you even at this level.
Premium Pack – Things actually get a touch worse here on the Premium side. Again, yes they are showing up +EV, but the floor packs will come with almost a $100 loss. Now the legendary odds are pretty good here as they are right around 9% and clearly all of those packs will offer a great ROI, but just remember that even when you land 2 rares tomorrow, there is a 66% chance your pack didn’t break even.
Strategy Moving Forward
I have been banging on the drum since early on in All Day, that this may just simply not be a buy packs kind of platform. The disparity between the studs and the duds is just so much larger in the NFL than it is in the NBA. I think that the reward packs for the playbook offer a really nice alternate option to buying packs. For reference, depending on when you run the numbers…getting to 60 yards is roughly equivalent to the EV of the Standard pack. Getting to 100 yards is about $100 less in EV than it is in the Premium pack, but you can also expose yourself to a lot less downside and almost get to the point where you are guaranteed to breakeven depending on how you did the challenges.
As it relates to Playbook, I think there’s a couple important things to take away from the Week 3 results…
First, go read this morning’s soapbox post to see how the Sunday Main challenge played out amongst the Top QBs. Circulation is always going to be king and that really proved the point this morning.
The runup on moments has started to significantly decrease. This is bad if you are in the flipping game, however this is really good if you are in the complete challenges for a profit game. Depending what we see from the MNF game here shortly, it’s almost guaranteed that we are going to be able to lock in $50+ of profit even if we completed all the challenges from scratch!
I think it might be wise to start leveling your collection up into Rares (theoretically moments who should hold more steady over time). Clyde Edwards-Helaire is an example that comes to mind quickly, but there will continue to be a lot of these that come up. His ADD common is $16 and his Rare is $46. We know that we’ve seen a lot of resistance at $40 for Rares. We know that ADDs don’t really matter a TON yet. You could argue that there is more upside reward in his common (if it gets frisky in a challenge), but probably a lot less downside risk as well. If we’ve talked ourselves into how upside reward is starting to go away, and instead the downside risk is what we are wanting to protect ourselves from…then I think it’s smart to start thinking through these kinds of things. Also, right now all we are talking about is the circulation of common moments. There’s definitely a day in our future where we are talking about circulation of rares as well.
I think a perfectly viable strategy is holding onto 1 of most of the fantasy football studs and then buying on the fringe to complete challenges as needed. I don’t by any means have a huge collection, but so far I’ve completed 3 challenges this week (assuming EOW doesn’t get to craxy), and have only had to buy like 4 or 5 moments. When that’s the case, you can almost put the weekly Playbook EV calcs away and instead just start stacking up those reward packs as pure profit.
Good luck to you if you decide to queue up tomorrow. I am really eager to see what the numbers are. If we’ve got more than 20k looking for a standard pack I would say that is a huge victory for All Day!